:Issued: 2024 May 04 1231 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 40504 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 04 May 2024, 1230UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 04 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 160 / AP: 011 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 164 / AP: 013 PREDICTIONS FOR 06 May 2024 10CM FLUX: 168 / AP: 017 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at high levels. The largest flare was a M9.1-flare, with peak time 06:19 UTC on May 04 associated with NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta). There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3663 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest region on disk and together with NOAA AR 3664 (beta-gamma-delta) the most magnetically complex regions, which both produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. Three yet unnumbered active region have started to emerge on the eastern half of the visible solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected and M-class flares expected and X-class flares possible. Coronal mass ejections: A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), was detected at 21:17 UTC on May 03, in LASCO C2 data. The CME is associated with an eruption seen in SDO/AIA 193 at 20:48 UTC. Further analysis is ongoing. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 12:01 UTC on May 02, in LASCO C2 data, associated with NOAA AR 3654 shows that this CME is not expected to impact the Earth. Further analysis of the CME, seen at 03:01 UTC on May 03, associated with NOAA AR 3663 and a X1.7-flare shows a possible arrival late on May 05 or early on May 06. Solar wind: Slow solar wind conditions were recorded over the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed gently declined from around 440 km/s to around 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field varied between 2 nT and 5 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -2 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) until 18:30 UTC on May 03 when it switched to the positive sector. The solar wind is may become perturbed on late on May 04, due to possible glancing blow ICME arrival. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (Kp 1-2) and quiet to unsettled locally (K_Bel 1-3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours. Proton flux levels: Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 and GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 161, BASED ON 12 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 03 May 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 155 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 156 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 007 AK WINGST : 008 ESTIMATED AP : 009 ESTIMATED ISN : 152, BASED ON 22 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 03 2225 2247 2311 N26W06 M1.2 SF 74/3654 III/3 03 2311 2316 2320 N26W06 M1.0 SF 84/3663 III/3 03 2324 2330 2336 N26W06 M2.4 SN 84/3663 III/2 04 0026 0036 0044 N26W06 M1.6 SF 84/3663 04 0602 0619 0630 N26W08 M9.1 1B 84/3663 III/3II/1IV/1 04 0704 0707 0711 ////// M1.5 84/3663 END BT #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # Solar Influences Data analysis Center - RWC Belgium # # Royal Observatory of Belgium # # # # Website http://www.sidc.be. # # E-mail sidc-support@oma.be # # To unsubscribe http://www.sidc.be/registration/unsub.php # # # # Legal notices: # # - Intellectual Property Rights: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/data-policy-en.pdf # # - Liability Disclaimer: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/disclaimer-en.pdf # # - Use and processing of your personal information: # # http://www.astro.oma.be/common/internet/en/privacy-policy-en.pdf # #--------------------------------------------------------------------#