SIDC ursigram

:Issued: 2024 May 18 1231 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/tot
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# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
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SIDC URSIGRAM 40518
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 18 May 2024, 1231UT
SIDC FORECAST 
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 18 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 215 / AP: 013
PREDICTIONS FOR 19 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 009
PREDICTIONS FOR 20 May 2024  10CM FLUX: 208 / AP: 006

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high during
the last 24 hours, with an M7 flare emitted from NOAA Active Region (AR)
3685 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 9) yesterday
at 21:08 UTC. The second brightest X-ray flare of the past 24 hours was a
C7 from NOAA AR 3679 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot
group 6). NOAA AR 3671 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group
93) and NOAA AR 3686 (magnetic configuration Alpha, Catania sunspot group
11) produced the remaining of the C-class flaring activity. For the next 24
hours, the pair of NOAA AR 3685 and 3686 is expected to continue producing
M-class flares with a chance of an X-class flare.

Coronal mass ejections: No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) have
been observed in the available coronagraph data.
A partial halo CME seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images as launched yesterday at
12:48 UT is judged to be a back-sided event.

Solar wind: The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were disturbed by a Coronal Mass
Ejection (CME)-induced shock yesterday at 12:40 UTC. The CME itself
followed a few minutes later. This is most likely the CME expected to
arrive as glancing blow yesterday evening. The SW speed peaked to 520 km/s
because of the arrival of the disturbance. The total interplanetary
magnetic field (Bt) increased to 17 nT but has decline significantly now.
The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -15 and 13 nT
during the CME disturbance. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle
turned to the direction of the Sun as a result of the CME arrival and
stayed predominantly to this direction. The effects of the CME are expected
to diminish in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism: The global geomagnetic conditions reached storm levels
yesterday (NOAA Kp: 5 15:00-18:00 UTC, 6 18:00-21:00 UTC, 5+ 21:00-24:00
UTC) and now fluctuate between quiet and unsettled levels. Locally the
conditions also increased to the minor storm level (K BEL 5) yesterday at
18:00-21:00 UTC and now fluctuate between quiet and unsettled levels. For
the next 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions are expected to vary between
active and quiet levels both globally and locally.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the
GOES-18 satellite, continued its drop during the past 24 hours and is now
in low levels. It is likely that it will remain at low levels in the next
24 hours, however, there is a small chance of a new proton event and an
increase in flux above the 10 pfu alert level.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured
by the GOES-18 satellite, increased during the past 24 hours and reached
the 1000 pfu alert threshold momentarily. This was most likely a localised
event as it lasted for a very short time and was not observed by GOES-16.
Hence, the electron flux is expected to remain at low levels in the next 24
hours.
The 24h electron fluence increased but remained at normal levels during the
past 24 hours. It is expected to decrease further in the next 24 hours.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 167, BASED ON 12 STATIONS.
99999

SOLAR INDICES FOR 17 May 2024
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : 193
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 204
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 037
AK WINGST              : 031
ESTIMATED AP           : 028
ESTIMATED ISN          : 181, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
17  2033  2108 2126 S12E62 M7.2 2B       09/3685      II/2IV/2 
END

UMAGF 30503 40518 1004/ 17063 1/037 22234 35433
UMAGF 31523 40518 0000/ 17001 1/031 22323 34565
BT
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